On May 28, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected to power for five years, extending his rule into a third decade. He won 52.1% of the vote share, against opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 47.9%. While Central Anatolia voted for Mr. Erdogan, the Kurdish areas in the east, the better-developed coastal areas in the west and south, and most of the major cities voted for Mr. Kilicdaroglu. This geographical divide in voting patterns could be attributed to frustration regarding deteriorating secular values, the restrictions on political and civil liberties, and the biggest economic crisis that the country has faced in years.
Notably, when Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) first came into power, it was the promise of economic reforms that helped it gain the trust of the public. In 2003, when Mr. Erdogan became Turkey’s 25th Prime Minister, the government focused on resolving Turkey’s economic problems, including raging inflation and unemployment. But 20 years later, the President had to overcome one of the biggest economic crisis that Turkey had witnessed in years to win the election. Many critics blamed the Turkish government for the dip in per capita GDP since 2013, the acceleration in inflation last year, and the currency depreciation since 2018.
Charts 1A, 1B, and 1C show how Turkey’s economic state worsened in the past few years. While GDP per capita almost tripled between 2003 and 2013, it has fallen considerably in the last decade. Inflation accelerated from 19.6% in 2021 to 72.3% in 2022. The Turkish lira weakened by 27% against the dollar in the past year.
Chart 1A | The chart shows the GDP per capita (in $) in Turkey over the years
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Chart 1B | The chart shows the CPI inflation (in %) in Turkey over the years
Chart 1C | The chart shows the currency depreciation (in Turkish lira) in Turkey over the years
Chart 1D | The chart shows employment-to-population ratio (in%) in Turkey over the years
The chart shows that the employment-to-population ratio was less than 50% in 2022.
Chart 1E | The chart shows the share of women in parliament (in %) in Turkey over the years
Mr. Erdogan and the AKP rode the wave of the Islamist current against Turkey’s secular order, set in place by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and later held together by the military, in the 1990s. He later consolidated his power at the apex of a new sociopolitical order, displacing the “secular-minded” elites. By gaining more power from the conservatives, Mr. Erdogan managed to silence his critics, including politicians and journalists. Political and press freedom became increasingly restricted.
Charts 1F and 1G show Turkey’s political and civil liberty index on a scale of 0 (worst) to 1 (best). Civil and political liberties, which had peaked in 2003 at 0.7, decreased to 0.33 and 0.25, respectively, by 2022.
Chart 1F | The chart shows the political liberties index (0 to 1) in Turkey over the years
Chart 1G | The chart shows the civil liberties index (0 to 1) in Turkey over the years
Chart 1H | The chart shows government shutdowns of the Internet (in %) in Turkey over the years
The chart indicates that a score less than 1 indicates that the government shut down domestic access to the Internet extremely often. While the score was poor in 2000, it has worsened further in the last decade.
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Chart 2A | The chart shows Turkey’s Human Development Index (HDI) compared to other countries in West Asia.
HDI is a measure of life expectancy, access to education, and standard of living. The chart shows HDI on a scale of 0 (worst) to 1 (best). While the HDI for Turkey has remained better compared to other West Asian countries, the same cannot be said of its human rights protection score
Chart 2B | The chart shows the Human Rights Protection Index. It captures the extent to which citizens’ physical integrity is protected from government killings, torture, political imprisonments, extrajudicial executions, mass killings and disappearances
Though Turkey’s score has remained comparatively poor, it has further deteriorated since the 2010s.
While Mr. Erdogan managed to retain power, the growing resentment against his rule, which has been characterized as “authoritarian populism,” was reflected in the increased vote shares for the opposition.
rebecca.varghese@thehindu.co.in
Source: OurWorldinData, World Bank, UNDP’s Human Development Reports, and V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) Institute of Sweden’s University of Gothenberg
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